Paleolithic Brains, Medieval Institutions, and Godly Technologies

In the early 1970’s, the report The Limits to Growth published by the “Club of Rome” drew attention to the potential crises humanity could face if world resources were rapidly depleted. The report predicted how the world could be devastated by the exponential growth of ecological and economic processes. At that time, the linear growth mindset of the industrial era prevailed, and the exponential perspective had not yet gained widespread acceptance. The disasters mentioned in the report did not fully materialize in the 50 years that have passed. One of the reasons behind this was the rapid development of technology and how these developments radically changed society and the economy. At this point, the role of developing technologies is probably undeniable. Since I started my working life, I have had the opportunity to catch a significant portion of disruptive technologies. In the early 80s, personal computers were the first step in the change of the computer concept for me. Immediately after, the internet itself became one of the biggest disruptive technologies. The internet, which became widespread in the mid-90s, democratized access to information and fundamentally changed the way business was done. Traditional media, retail, and service sectors underwent a major transformation with the spread of the internet. The rise of e-commerce led to the closure of physical stores, while online platforms led to the emergence of new business models. Social media was another breakthrough built on the internet. It revolutionized personal communication. It flattened the print media. Smartphones pushed "talking on the phone" behind messaging, listening to music, getting news, and taking pictures. It almost completely eliminated one of the iconic companies of the 20th century, like Kodak. Uber introduced us to the sharing economy. The path from Napster to Spotify disrupted the music industry. Netflix brought movies instantly to our homes with "streaming" technology. Blockchain technology taught us decentralized smart contracts besides cryptocurrencies. CRISPR revolutionized gene technology. And of course, generative artificial intelligence, as the "mother" of disruptive technologies, entered our lives not two years ago. In addition to these major technological transformations, many different disruptive technologies that we may not yet know or be aware of may also be developing. For example, technologies such as quantum computing, nanotechnology, augmented reality (AR), and virtual reality (VR) also have the potential to create profound impacts on society in the near future. Technologists and futurists have made claims and predictions about how technological breakthroughs will shape the future. Generally, when a new concept is introduced, entrepreneurs rush to it with all their might. Significant resources are invested in the search for new opportunities. Although Gartner's "Hype Cycle" introduced in 1995 tries to explain how such technological innovations evolve, there are doubts about the consistency of this cycle. Many technologies, despite initial great excitement and investment, lead to disappointment, but some make a big turnaround and become mainstream. All these disruptive developments make us reconsider Amara's Law: People tend to overestimate the short-term effects of new technologies and underestimate their long-term effects. Roy Amara's view suggests that we will be able to see the profound effects of technological innovat…